Auto parts industry: wire-controlled chassis track outbreak, autonomous counterattack

Release time:

2021-08-04 00:00

Source:

This article is from the Gelonghui column: CITIC Securities Research, by Li Jingtao and Yin Xinchi.

China's auto parts industry ushered in long-term growth opportunities, in which intelligent, electric is the main theme, is expected to give birth to the wire-controlled chassis industry scale ushered in explosive growth. We expect that by 2026, the global wire-controlled chassis will exceed 150 billion yuan, with wire-controlled braking and wire-controlled steering reaching 575/43.6 billion yuan respectively, and CAGR exceeding 40% in the next five years. Chassis controller industry was previously dominated by foreign giants, independent suppliers are expected to take advantage of the line-controlled "Dongfeng" to achieve replacement, the share continues to increase. We focus on recommending the overall layout of the wire-controlled chassis leading vehicle manufacturer Great Wall Motor (A-H) and the continuous increase in the market share of the main track of the wire-controlled chassis supplier Bertelli, Nestor (H), Top Group, Huayuan Automotive.

▍ Why choose to focus on wire-controlled chassis industry?

First of all, we believe that China's auto parts suppliers will usher in long-term growth opportunities, of which intelligence and electrification are the main directions. Secondly, the wire-controlled chassis has the characteristics of fast response speed, high control accuracy, and strong energy recovery. It is the only way to achieve high-level autonomous driving and is the cornerstone of the executive end of high-level autonomous driving vehicles. In addition, the world's mainstream car companies will be the next 1-2 years to launch models with L3 and L3 level of self-driving function, wire-controlled chassis scale will follow the L3 self-driving mass production ushered in a rapid outbreak period.

Wire-controlled chassis industry market size: the space is vast, the main track is growing rapidly.

The chassis system accounts for about 10% of the cost of the vehicle, and the industry space is vast. Wire-control chassis is divided into four major systems: wire-control brake, wire-control steering, wire-control throttle and wire-control shift. According to our estimation, the domestic/global wire-control chassis market will reach 145/44.7 billion yuan in 2021, 575/152.8 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.8/27.8 domestic/global CAGR in 5 years. Among them, the line control brake, line control steering system is the main track, accounting for the highest proportion, the domestic/global market size of 216/57.5 billion yuan, 164/43.6 billion yuan, corresponding to 2021-2026 5 years CAGR of 50.7/46.3%, 52.2/46.8%, the next five years will usher in explosive growth.

▍ Line control chassis industry competition pattern: foreign capital led, the pattern of concentration, independent suppliers began to force.

As the chassis industry is closely related to automotive safety, decades of technology accumulation and supporting experience have made the industry entry barriers high, and OEMs have developed a high degree of dependence on suppliers. Among them, the brake-by-wire industry is mainly dominated by Bosch, Continental and ZF Tianhe, with an industry CR3 of 96%. The line-controlled steering industry is in its infancy, with giants such as Bosch, Jettegt, Nexter and ZF SkyTeam leading the way in technology. The industry's foreign giants dominate, with high concentration and stable supporting relationships. With the upward breakthrough of independent brands and the continuous iteration of self-driving technology by Chinese car companies, Chinese suppliers are expected to take advantage of the upward trend of independent brands to usher in the opportunity of "overtaking on the curve", gradually break through the monopoly of foreign suppliers in technology, give full play to the advantages of made in China in production, and begin to occupy a place in the field of wire-controlled chassis.

Wire-controlled chassis industry development trend: the commercialization process accelerated, the value of the volume of the increase.

1) Line-controlled braking: Line-controlled braking solves the problem of lack of vacuum power source for electric vehicles, and compared with the use of electronic vacuum pumps, line control kinetic energy for energy recovery, the efficiency is greatly improved. Therefore, line-controlled braking is an inevitable choice for higher-level autonomous driving, and penetration is expected to increase rapidly, with domestic penetration expected to reach 30% in 2026. There are two technical solutions of TWO-Box and One-Box, of which the One-Box solution has high integration and is expected to become the mainstream. At the same time, the popularity of line-controlled braking is expected to bring about a rapid increase in the value of the braking system from 600-1000 yuan to 2000-2500 yuan.

2) Wire-controlled steering: wire-controlled steering has the characteristics of steering wheel and steering gear completely decoupled, saving cockpit space, flexible design, high steering accuracy, more in line with the needs of high-level automatic driving, the penetration rate will increase rapidly, the domestic penetration rate is expected to reach 15% in 2026. At the same time, the number of lines of steer-by-wire control code is further increased, and redundant safety functions need to be added. It is estimated that the value of a single vehicle will be increased from 1,000-2,000 yuan to 3,000-4,000 yuan. We judge that the wire-controlled steering is closest to the DP-EPS and R-EPS at the structural end, so the leading companies in the layout of large torque steering machines such as R-EPS and DP-EPS are expected to take the lead in achieving breakthroughs and gaining a larger market share in the field of wire-controlled steering.

▍ Risk factors:

The business climate of the new energy vehicle industry was less than expected, the breakthrough of self-driving technology was less than expected, and the development of wire-controlled chassis technology was less than expected.

▍ Investment advice:

The wire-controlled chassis industry is in an explosive period. Independent manufacturers are expected to replace it and gain a higher market share. We focus on recommending Great Wall Motor (A H), a leading vehicle manufacturer in the overall layout of the wire-controlled chassis, as well as parts suppliers Bethel, Nestor (H), Top Group and Huayu Motor, which continue to increase their market share in the main track of the wire-controlled chassis.

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